0054: Predictions of When

We often talk about how know one really knows when the singularity might happen (if it does), when human-level AI will exist (if ever), when we might see superintelligence, etc.

Back in January, we made up a 3 number system for talking about our own predictions and asked our community on facebook to play along as well. What we said then was 3 numbers:

  • How many years from now do you think is a 5% probability that super-human AI exists?
  • How many years from now do you think there is a 50% probability that super-human AI exists?
  • How many years from now do you think there is a 95% probability that super-human AI exists?

At that time, Brandon was 5/30/70 and Ted was 15/30/50.

On this show, without looking back on our previous predictions, we tried it again, this time instead of using years from now, we used dates, to avoid having to do the math each time. Here are our current predictions:

  • Ted 2027/2042/2099
  • Brandon 2040/2070/2110

We would love to have you play along this time as well.

References:

Advertisements